Economics
Sectoral Notes
OSTİMTECH Econ-Sectoral Notes/2021/006
30 May 2021
NOTE-6: ASSET QUALITY OF THE TURKISH BANKING SECTOR AND PROJECTIONS FOR 2021
The CBRT's May 2021 Financial Stability Report, when evaluated together with the BRSA's March 2021 sector data, paves the way for forward-looking forecasts to some extent, albeit not completely. On the other hand, statements regarding the industrial sector also provide important signals regarding the key components of the economy
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Link: ASSET QUALITY OF THE TURKISH BANKING SECTOR AND PROJECTIONS FOR 2021
OSTİMTECH Econ-Sectoral Notes/2021/005
2 May 2021
NOTE-5: NON-PERFORMING LOAN ANALYSIS OF THE TURKISH BANKING SECTOR IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2021: UNCERTAINTIES AND UNKNOWNS
The measures taken to combat the pandemic and the changes in reporting standards emphasize a cautious approach towards non-performing loan data, which is the main determinant of asset quality that can be monitored through financial statements; a clearer picture is expected to be seen in the second half of the year, when the economic outlook and reporting standards will return to normal. In the last year, the non-performing loan ratio has fallen from 5% to 3.8%, while banks are trying to create a buffer, albeit to a limited extent, to cover the damage caused by a possible increase in non-performing loans.
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OSTİMTECH Econ-Sectoral Notes/2021/004
2 May 2021
NOTE-4: PROFIT/LOSS ANALYSIS OF THE TURKISH BANKING SECTOR IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2021: NEGATIVE IMPACT OF INTEREST RATES AND EXCHANGE RATES
The macroeconomic measures taken in the last year of the pandemic and the fight against the pandemic and the reporting standard changes made by regulatory bodies continue to have an impact on bank financial statements. In 2020, the banking sector, which displayed a positive outlook in terms of growth and profitability in book terms, faced losses in the first quarter of 2021 due to the interest rate hike and exchange rate fluctuations in the first step of the normalization process. Although profits increased by 4.3% in nominal terms compared to the first quarter of 2020, the net interest income-interest margin narrowed and foreign exchange losses increased significantly. The loss faced by state-owned banks was particularly pronounced.
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OSTİMTECH Econ-Sectoral Notes/2021/003
2 May 2021
NOTE-3: IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE TURKISH BANKING SECTOR AND OUTLOOK AS OF MARCH-2021
The sector's balance sheet expanded significantly and rapidly with the support of the macroeconomic policies pursued in the last year against the perception that the sector's balance sheet was inadequate, while the share of short-term resources in funding increased. In the last quarter of 2020, the significant loss in net interest income and interest margin caused by the interest rate hike and the sharp increase in foreign exchange losses had a negative impact on the sector's profitability in the first quarter of 2021. Due to the temporary amendments to the reporting standards, it is important to evaluate the sector's asset quality, profitability, shareholders' equity and capital adequacy with an approach beyond the data presented in the financial statements, and to monitor the financial situation in the second half of the year in case of a return to a practice in line with international reporting standards in the June-2021 period.
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Link: IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE TURKISH BANKING SECTOR AND OUTLOOK AS OF MARCH-2021
OSTİMTECH Econ-Sectoral Notes/2020/002
21 January 2021
NOTE-2: A COMPARISON OF THE LATEST DATA WITH THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX OF TURKEY, OSTİM OSB ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION DATA AND AN ANALYSIS OF GDP GROWTH IN 2020
The industrial production index prepared and calculated by TURKSTAT is an indicator for economic circles in order to measure the developments in the industrial sector of the economy and the impact of the economic policies implemented in the industrial sector in the short term. Considering the share of the manufacturing industry's contribution to growth in GDP growth calculations, the industrial production index and the industrial sector electricity consumption index (OSTİM OSB), which is highly correlated with this index, provide important clues in the estimation of real growth.
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OSTİMTECH Econ-Sectoral Notes/2020/001
15 December 2020
NOTE-1: EVALUATION OF TURKEY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX and OSTİM OIZ ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION DATA
The Industrial Production Index, which is prepared and calculated by TurkStat, is an indicator for economic circles to measure the developments in the industrial sector of the economy and the impact of economic policies implemented in the industrial sector in the short term. The electricity consumption data of the OSTİM Organized Industrial Zone, published annually by the OSTİM OIZ Administration, provides important clues about the workplaces and the intensity of the activities of the companies in the zone. In this note, which summarizes the relationship between these two indicators based on the latest published data, a strong correlation is observed between the industrial index and electricity consumption data in the same direction.
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Link: EVALUATION OF TURKEY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX and OSTİM OIZ ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION DATA
